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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Several concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is near accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.