Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
