Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
